Objective Elliott Wave

Stock market analysis with proprietary OEW techniques, private OEW tutoring
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Objective Elliott Wave in Realtime


The original Wave Theory presented by RN Elliott did not, to our knowledge, quantitatively define the waves as they unfolded. I mention; "to our knowledge", since we really do not have any idea what Elliott discovered, other than what he disclosed publicly. I can totally understand that possibility, as I have never disclosed publicly, what I have discovered as well. Textbook Elliott provides an excellent Theory of stock market movement. When one examines the entire history of the US stock market, from 1885 - present, the patterns are very clearly seen, very clearly. Therefore, if the waves occur historically there must be a way of determinihng them in real time. Objective Elliott Wave (OEW) does exactly that. It identifies the beginning and end of every significant wave as it occurs, quantitatively, in real time. There is no subjectivity at all, in identifying the waves. Lets review the stock market, specifically the SPX in real terms, as it is occurring.

 
This chart illustrates the stock market movement over the past 25 years. Notice the first five wave structure, labeled 1-2-3-4-III, in the lower left corner. The III and IV, are part of a larger five wave structure that started in 1974, and ended in the year 2000. Now, notice how wave V also subdivided into five waves 1-2-3-4-5. One might think that this is the past. Yes it is, but I made a reference to the future, in the past, and that is my point here. When the Barron's article was published in June 1987, I made a couple of references to the SPX. I quote; "There is a high probability that the current series of new highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will mark the end of this leg of the bull market ... In addition, according to my wave count of the S&P 500, shown in chart four, the bull market that began in 1974 has completed its third primary wave. Thus, a serious correction is in store for both New York Stock Exchange issues and the S&P."

The first sentence states that the bull market would not be over after the crash, and that it would resume. The last crash of this degree occurred in 1929, and ended that bull market. Secondly, that the SPX had completed Primary wave III in 1987. Both statements turned out to be exactly correct! The SPX completed Primary wave III in 1987, crashed with the general market in Primary wave IV. And, then resumed the bull market to complete Primary wave V in the year 2000.

Lets now examine the second chart. This is a blowup of the market action from 1987 to 1991.The three years after the crash as the SPX completed Major wave 1. Notice how the advance was a five wave structure, labeled i thru v. Also, notice that wave iii was again a five wave structure, labeled 1 thru 5. It continues to subdivide from there, but the point is clear. Just like the analogy of the box, within the box, within the box. An impulse wave is clearly a five wave structure, with each impulse also subdividing into another five wave structure, etc. One last point before we move to the present. These waves are quantitatively derived. There is no subjectivity at all. When a wave occurs it is clearly known where it began, and where it ended. Just as every wave that has ever occurred in the US stock market. OEW quantifies all market activity, as it occurs, to determine the precise turning points of every significant wave. In the past, in the present, and in the future. That's what makes it Objective Elliott Wave.

 
This last chart is the current bull market. This wave structure is a bit different from the one shown previously. This is the new bull market that started at the October 2002 lows. And as such, it has its own characteristics, as do all bull markets. What we observe here is Primary waves I, II, III and IV completed early in the bull market. Primary wave V is now extending into subdivisions of five wave structures. This is exactly what occurred between 1932 - 1937 at the last Super cycle low: a simple five wave structure with an extended fifth wave. With Primary wave V underway since August 2004, it should subdivide into five Major waves: 1 thru 5. Major waves 1 and 2 completed in April 2005. Now, Major wave 3 is also subdividing into five Intermediate waves. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in july 2006, and Intermediate wave iii is currently underway.

 
All these waves, as with many of the waves within each structure, are quantified, not subjectively derived. There is a lot more to OEW than just quantifying waves. These waves, and a market momentum indicator, (the MMI which measures the large, market driving, investor psychology cycle), are the foundation of OEW. This is not textbook Elliott Wave.