14Sept2005
History of the Dow Jones Industrial Averages
About every 10 years, (the last times being 1985 and 1995), I like to review the entire history of the stock market. In this case it's now 120 years worth of data 1885 - 2005. Initially, I look at the yearly changes and monthly changes within that year when necessary. As a matter of record, I want to post here my labeling of the significant turning points in stock market history.
The first average was published in July 1884 in the weekly Customers Afternoon Letter. It included nine railroad and two industrial stocks. In the following year, Feb 1885, the average was expanded to include twelve railroads and two industrials. This was the first time the average would be calculated on a daily basis. Referencing several other economic, political and social cycles I start the labeling in the midst of the Second US Super Cycle (1863 - 1932).
1776 - 1863 First US Super Cycle
1863 - 1932 Second US Super Cycle
12/03/86 Major 3 top
04/02/88 Major 4 bottom
05/17/90 Cycle 3 top
11/09/03 Cycle 4 bottom
09/03/29 Cycle 5 top
07/09/32 Super Cycle 2 bottom
1932 - 2002 Third US Super Cycle
03/10/37 Cycle 1 top:
04/28/42 Cycle 2 bottom
05/29/46 Major 1 top
06/13/49 Major 2 bottom
02/09/66 Major 3 top
05/26/70 Major 4 bottom
01/11/73 Cycle 3 top.
08/12/82 Cycle 4 bottom.
01/14/00 Cycle 5 top
10/09/02 Super Cycle 3 bottom:
2002 - Fourth US Super Cycle
These dates are the precise turning points of all major and cycle waves since the inception of regular daily averages, based upon my discovery of an exact and objective EW application back in the 1980's. Trends commence and make exact turning points as measured by yearly, monthly and daily market activity. As more conjoining data becomes available I will extend the counts further back in time.
| 15Sept2005 Objective Elliott Wave
Okay, you might be thinking this title is an oxymoron right? How can the Elliott Wave be mentioned in the same statement with the word objective, unless one states; "In EW analysis, there isn't any objectivity, it's all subjective!"
It is my belief, Elliott never divulged his entire discovery to the people he dealt with, and to Wall Street as a whole. Probably only to a few discrete friends, who also kept it under wraps: like Bolton, and possibly AJ Frost, etc. For the past two decades I have been applying a slightly modified EW to the stock market quite successfully, and this is the reason I make the statement above. If anyone digs deep enough and long enough into the Theory they will discovery nuances never mentioned, or they will conclude that it simply doesn't work.
Now, I'm not going to bore you with all the details. And, I'm not going to divulge the nuances either, sorry. However, what I will do is disclose on this very post, updating from time to time, where we are in the 2002 bull market and where we might be heading.
I feel if someone has a general idea of where the market is heading they can greatly enhance their profitability. Agree? I do not recommend trading, investing, or whatever on this information. It is for news and informational purposes only!
Where we are: COMPX
Super cycle low 1,114.11 on 10/09/02
Cycle wave one: to consist of 5 major waves
wave... level...... date concluded
Major 1 1,487.94 11/27/02 bull market kickoff
Major 2 1,271.47 03/11/03 normal correction a zigzag
Major 3 2,153.83 01/26/04 strong extended advance
Major 4 1,752.49 08/12/04 flat then zigzag: double 3 alternating correction
Major 5 then subdivides into minor waves:
minor 1 2,178.34 12/30/04 nice advance rising 24.3%
minor 2 1,904.18 04/28/05 normal double zigzag correction
minor 3 then subdivides into minute waves:
minute 1 2,218.15 08/02/05 moderate advance
minute 2 .................. normal correction going on right now
Where we're heading:
minute 3 possibly a very strong advance
minute 4 correction alternating with minute 2
minute 5 advance completeing minor 3
minor 4 correction alternating with minor 2
minor 5 advance completing Major 5, and Cycle 1 and thus the bull market of 2002.
Remember, this is for informational purposes only. Only to be used as a general guideline of a series of probabilities, no guarantees implied.
Enjoy the ride. The bull is preparing to snort and gore some bears
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